Stalking the Elusive Royal Flush

One hundred percent plus games certainly look inviting. They really do pay what they promise, but you may not be willing to make the effort. Here's why.

A 52-card deck can produce 2,598,960 unique hands. Four of them are royal flushes. That's one royal flush that won't require a draw in every 649,740 hands. When we add the probability of drawing to a royal flush the chances increase to about 1 in 40,000. That number can go up or down depending on the type of strategy that is used.

The critical point is that the payback on every video poker machine includes the value of the royal flush. The player must win the royal flush while playing maximum coins to reach those wonderful positive expectations. It's mathematically guaranteed, but only with no strategy mistakes (like accidentally throwing away a royal) and enough play time. And remember that 40,000 is an average. A royal is like the elusive head on a coin; it may not appear when expected.

What it takes to play a positive game

Let's say a player completes a game every ten seconds. That's six games a minute, 360 games an hour, and 111 hours to play 40,000 games. During this time smaller wins are accumulating and maximum coins are being wagered. The required bankroll is only three or four thousand dollars, but after 111 hours $50,000 worth of quarters has gone through the machine. If a royal comes during this time, and if the machine has a payback of 100.5 percent, the total return will be $250.00.

$50,000 x 100.5% _ $50,250

A dollar machine will return $1,000. Not exactly a windfall. And here's the clincher. Most people don't use a strategy or they don't play maximum coins. That gives them a zero chance of seeing a 100 percent return in the long run.

the type of strategy

includes winning the royal

the pay schedule